Live · Commodities · 25m Live · 25m

BRENT 80.590 ▲ 0.93% WTI 76.540 ▼ 0.08% NAT GAS 3.1980 ▼ 1.08% GOLD 4,172.90 ▼ 1.21% SILVER 64.910 ▼ 2.03% PLATINUM 1,668.20 ▼ 2.17% PALLADIUM 1,264.50 ▼ 0.78% COPPER 6.3370 ▼ 0.59% WHEAT 613.25 ▲ 1.24% CORN 444.25 ▲ 6.41% SOYBEAN 1,142.00 ▲ 1.71% COFFEE 256.10 ▼ 6.91% SUGAR 14.140 ▲ 4.05% COCOA 4,362.00 ▲ 5.29% COTTON 79.330 ▲ 4.31% EUR/USD 1.1468 ▼ 0.01% USD/JPY 161.26 ▼ 0.01% GBP/USD 1.3224 ▼ 0.01% USD/CHF 0.8068 data · yahoo finance · exchangerate-api · finnhub BRENT 80.590 ▲ 0.93% WTI 76.540 ▼ 0.08% NAT GAS 3.1980 ▼ 1.08% GOLD 4,172.90 ▼ 1.21% SILVER 64.910 ▼ 2.03% PLATINUM 1,668.20 ▼ 2.17% PALLADIUM 1,264.50 ▼ 0.78% COPPER 6.3370 ▼ 0.59% WHEAT 613.25 ▲ 1.24% CORN 444.25 ▲ 6.41% SOYBEAN 1,142.00 ▲ 1.71% COFFEE 256.10 ▼ 6.91% SUGAR 14.140 ▲ 4.05% COCOA 4,362.00 ▲ 5.29% COTTON 79.330 ▲ 4.31% EUR/USD 1.1468 ▼ 0.01% USD/JPY 161.26 ▼ 0.01% GBP/USD 1.3224 ▼ 0.01% USD/CHF 0.8068 data · yahoo finance · exchangerate-api · finnhub BRENT 80.590 ▲ 0.93% WTI 76.540 ▼ 0.08% NAT GAS 3.1980 ▼ 1.08% GOLD 4,172.90 ▼ 1.21% SILVER 64.910 ▼ 2.03% PLATINUM 1,668.20 ▼ 2.17% PALLADIUM 1,264.50 ▼ 0.78% COPPER 6.3370 ▼ 0.59% WHEAT 613.25 ▲ 1.24% CORN 444.25 ▲ 6.41% SOYBEAN 1,142.00 ▲ 1.71% COFFEE 256.10 ▼ 6.91% SUGAR 14.140 ▲ 4.05% COCOA 4,362.00 ▲ 5.29% COTTON 79.330 ▲ 4.31% EUR/USD 1.1468 ▼ 0.01% USD/JPY 161.26 ▼ 0.01% GBP/USD 1.3224 ▼ 0.01% USD/CHF 0.8068 data · yahoo finance · exchangerate-api · finnhub

— CEST · Vienna

Trade Signal Labs · Vol. II

Trading the tides / research instruments.

Quantifying execution integrity and policy risk with sovereign data — live AIS vessel tracking, the Policy-Execution Integrity Model, and a small library of working tools kept in semi-public beta.

Live · Project Status — CEST

Vessels in pool: —
Working papers: 01
Malacca / Hormuz: — · —in bbox
Last AIS sync: —min ago

Lab № 01

Live AIS · Vessels in the corridor.

Currently selected — Click a vessel marker to inspect —

— Vessels in pool awaiting first sync

— Malacca strait in bounding box

— Hormuz strait in bounding box

— Suez approach in bounding box

● COMMODITY INTELLIGENCE HUB / SIG-LAB-01

GLOBAL ENERGY FLOWS

MARKET SIGNALS

CHOKEPOINT ANALYTICS

Suez Canal NORMAL / 22vph

Panama Canal DELAY / 14vph

Strait of Malacca HIGH DENSITY

VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX-COM)

24.5 ▲ +1.2%

P · 01

The corridor commute calculator.

A small tool to plot the real cost-in-time of Vienna ↔ Singapore against rotated alternatives.

Tool · live · MIT

P · 02

Heuriger finder.

A Vienna-only walking map of the season's open Buschenschanken, with elevation and tram-stop distance.

Tool · live

P · 03

AIS replay canvas.

A WebGL playback engine for archived vessel positions — used internally for the chokepoint pieces.

Internal · semi-public

P · 04

Sanction list diff watcher.

Watches OFAC, EU, and SECO consolidated lists nightly. Posts a diff to the journal RSS when material.

Bot · live

P · 05

The colophon.

How this journal is built, hosted, typeset, and the small choices behind it.

Document · evergreen

P · 06

FX desk-tape.

A quiet two-row ticker for the major FX crosses. Lives in the corner of a screen, nowhere else.

Tool · live

.01 / Working paper

Singapore, SG· 12 DEC 2025

Abstract

This paper presents a novel approach to quantifying execution risk in fragmented liquidity venues. We utilize a proprietary stochastic model to estimate slippage probability under …

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